建信期货锌期货日报-20251119

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]