建信期货白糖日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of raw sugar is relatively strong, with the lifting of export negatives in India and the recent rebound in oil prices being the driving forces, but the rebound space is expected to be limited as the main producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the harvest season [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The new domestic sugar quotes were lowered. The new sugar in Yunnan started to be listed, with a small quantity and a higher price than the old sugar. The sugar mills intended to raise the price of new sugar. The import of 750,000 tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, put pressure on the market. New speculative funds vigorously shorted, while hedging positions left the market on dips. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Quotes: SR601 closed at 5407 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.06%, with an increase of 4030 positions; SR605 closed at 5357 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.85%, with an increase of 8731 positions; the March contract of US sugar closed at 14.75 cents/pound, down 0.21 or 1.40%, with a decrease of 5459 positions; the May contract of US sugar closed at 14.33 cents/pound, down 0.16 or 1.10%, with an increase of 1506 positions [7]. - Domestic Sugar Market: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The new domestic sugar quotes were lowered. The new sugar in Yunnan started to be listed. In October, 750,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, putting pressure on the market. New speculative funds vigorously shorted, while hedging positions left the market on dips. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2. Industry News - Global Sugar Supply and Demand: The International Sugar Organization predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. There was a shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The improvement in the global production outlook led to the global raw sugar price falling to a five - year low of 14.04 cents per pound earlier this month [9]. - India's Sugar Production: India's sugarcane crushing season has fully started. 325 sugar mills have started crushing operations, compared with 144 in the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume has reached 12.8 million tons, an increase from 9.1 million tons in the same period last year. The sugar production is 1.05 million tons, higher than 710,000 tons in the same period last year, and the average sugar yield is 8.2%, up from 7.8% in the same period last year [9]. - Brazil's Sugar Exports: Brazil exported 1,558,238.10 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 155,823.80 tons, a 13% decrease compared with the daily average export volume of 178,434.00 tons in the whole of November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 3,390,245.70 tons [9]. - China's Dairy and Beverage Production: In October 2025, China's dairy production was 2.453 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative dairy production was 24.416 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In October 2025, China's beverage production was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative beverage production was 155.501 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - Futures Market Data: The report presents multiple figures including spot trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][21]. - Top 20 Seats' Trading and Holding Positions: The total trading volume of the top 20 seats was 350,145 lots, an increase of 101,047 lots; the total long - holding volume was 245,234 lots, an increase of 1,689 lots; the total short - holding volume was 277,113 lots, an increase of 5,161 lots [21].