瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251119

Report Summary - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,700 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,440 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,480 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Positions: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,127 lots, up 2,096 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 61,464 lots, up 61 lots [2] - Net Positions: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,656 lots, up 1,097 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,368 lots, up 450 lots [2] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 116,060 tons, up 160 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,594 tons, down 101 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Rubber Prices: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Synthetic Rubber Prices: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 490 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the basis of the main non - standard product of Shanghai rubber contract was - 695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Thai Rubber Prices: The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - Production Profits: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 149.6 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars [2] - Imports: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Tire Inventories: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, up 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.36 days, up 0.31 days [2] - Tire Output: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.92%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.34%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.57%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - Truck Sales: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - Inventory in Qingdao: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13% [2] - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]