Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2070 | 2160 | 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 | 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 | 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | Change | 0 | -10 | 0 | 0 | -17 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 37 | 9 | [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices have started an upward trend driven by tightened supply in production areas and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Farmers' reluctance to sell has delayed the concentrated release of selling pressure. - Medium - long term: The supply - demand pattern of the corn market remains tight this year, and planting costs will strongly support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may start a new upward cycle [3] - Short - term: Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. After the new - season corn is on the market, deep - processing procurement and开机率 increase, but slow downstream replenishment and high inventory suppress starch prices. - Medium - long term: The key factor for starch price trends is downstream consumption rhythm. A significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment and drive prices up [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8904 | | 2025/11/14 | - | 5760 | 5635 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/17 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/18 | - | 5760 | 5600 | - | - | - | 8794 | | 2025/11/19 | - | - | 5600 | - | - | - | 8611 | | Change | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | -183 | [5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the overseas market. Before new quota licenses are issued, domestic sugar production costs are a key support. - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, imported sugar may impact domestic sugar costs. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, maintaining a short - selling strategy, but short - term low valuation limits the downward space [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(F E) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 14380 | 73.8 | 75.0 | 1272 | 5058 | 2.52 | 20970 | 438 | -129 | | 2025/11/14 | 14355 | - | 74.7 | 1281 | 5044 | 2.52 | 20970 | 493 | -102 | | 2025/11/17 | 14315 | - | 74.4 | 1286 | 5218 | 2.52 | 20960 | 451 | -70 | | 2025/11/18 | 14280 | - | - | - | 5314 | 2.52 | 20955 | 429 | -39 | | 2025/11/19 | 14320 | - | - | - | 4636 | 2.52 | 20950 | - | -86 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | -678 | 0 | -5 | - | -47 | [7] Market Analysis - New cotton procurement is basically completed, with the total output estimate revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan and tariff cuts are beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. The external environment has improved compared to April, so the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 420 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 503 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.06 | | 2025/11/17 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.11 | 380 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.98 | | 2025/11/18 | 2.78 | 2.71 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 3.02 | 301 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.89 | | 2025/11/19 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.96 | 281 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.92 | | Change | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | [13] Market Analysis - Supply side: Ordered chicken culling and a decrease in new - layer chickens have alleviated some supply pressure. - Demand side: Cooler weather allows for longer egg storage, and some traders are building rolling inventories. The interaction of supply and demand has slightly pushed up the price center in production areas. Currently, the culling process has not accelerated significantly, and there are no signs of over - culling in the short term. Future price trends depend on the culling rhythm, and faster culling may drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | 735.77 | 270.88 | 207.60 | -1504.00 | -1442.00 | -408.00 | | 2025/11/14 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1570.00 | -1495.00 | -450.00 | | 2025/11/17 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1438.00 | -1318.00 | -355.00 | | 2025/11/18 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1433.00 | -1356.00 | -382.00 | | 2025/11/19 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1375.00 | -1296.00 | -347.00 | | Change | 0.00 | - | 58.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | | | | [16][17] Market Analysis - National apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year, with an estimated volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Shaanxi's storage is 5 - 5.5%, 10 - 15% less than last year; Gansu's is 70%, 20 - 30% less; Shandong's is 50%, 10% less. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, good - quality apples are scarce, and the price difference between good and bad apples is widening. The futures price has risen significantly recently and is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [17] Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 11.88 | 11.50 | 12.02 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 20 | | 2025/11/14 | 11.93 | 11.55 | 11.97 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 155 | | 2025/11/17 | 11.63 | 11.35 | 11.77 | 11.85 | 11.85 | -65 | | 2025/11/18 | 11.68 | 11.45 | 11.72 | 11.90 | 11.85 | 145 | | 2025/11/19 | 11.78 | 11.50 | 11.77 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 220 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 75.00 | [17] Market Analysis - Over the weekend, the northern pig spot market was weak while the southern market was stable. Northern farmers were more willing to sell, and there was limited second - fattening support and downstream follow - up. Some southern farmers were holding out for higher prices, but price increases faced limited demand. The market is in a weak, volatile game in the short term. Mid - term supply pressure remains due to unchanged production capacity, and there is still pressure from fourth - quarter base supply and weight reduction. Near - term inventory accumulation shifts pressure to later periods. Attention should be paid to selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment in the high - position futures market [17]
农产品早报-20251120
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-20 00:42