Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a weakening trend with falling prices and mixed production and inventory changes. The iron ore supply chain has a negative feedback basis, and it is not recommended to go long. For steel, with the decline in apparent demand and unsold inventory, a short - side attempt can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Threaded Steel: Spot prices in different regions (East, North, South) are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Futures contract prices also decreased, with the 05 contract down 23 yuan, the 10 contract down 18 yuan, and the 01 contract down 20 yuan [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Spot prices in different regions are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 - 10 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices decreased, with the 05 contract down 14 yuan, the 10 contract down 16 yuan, and the 01 contract down 9 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Cost: Steel billet price is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel is 3254 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel is 3189 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. - Profit: East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 77 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 147 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China threaded steel profit is - 127 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; South China threaded steel profit is 43 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Production - Daily Average Hot - Metal Output: It is 236.8 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% [1]. - Output of Five Major Steel Products: It is 834.4 tons, down 22.4 tons or - 2.6%. Threaded steel output is 200.0 tons, down 8.5 tons or - 4.1%, including a 1.2 - ton or - 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace output and a 7.4 - ton or - 4.1% decrease in converter output. Hot - rolled coil output is 313.7 tons, down 4.5 tons or - 1.4% [1]. Inventory - Inventory of Five Major Steel Products: It is 1477.4 tons, down 26.2 tons or - 1.7%. Threaded steel inventory is 576.2 tons, down 16.4 tons or - 2.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, with a negligible change [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building Materials Transaction Volume: It is 9.2 tons, down 0.4 tons or - 4.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 860.6 tons, down 6.3 tons or - 0.7%. The apparent demand for threaded steel is 216.4 tons, down 2.2 tons or - 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 313.6 tons, down 0.7 tons or - 0.2% [1]. Report on the Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures oscillated. Although the hot - metal output rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Cost: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged [5]. - 01 Contract Basis: The basis of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the basis of Carol powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%, PB powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0%, Brazilian Blend powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%, and Jinbuba powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0% [5]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 6.4%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 61.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or - 6.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 36.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 5.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot Prices at Rizhao Port: The spot prices of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 104.5 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1%, and the Platts 62% Fe is 105.2 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1% [5]. Supply - Arrival Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly): It is 2268.9 tons, down 472.3 tons or - 17.2%. - Global Shipment Volume (Weekly): It is 3516.4 tons, up 447.4 tons or 14.6%. - National Monthly Import Volume: It is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons or 10.6% [5]. Demand - Daily Average Hot - Metal of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly): It is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - Daily Average Out - Port Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly): It is 327.0 tons, up 6.0 tons or 1.9%. - National Monthly Pig Iron Output: It is 6554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons or - 0.8%. - National Monthly Crude Steel Output: It is 7199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons or - 2.0% [5]. Inventory Change - Inventory at 45 Ports (Weekly): It is 15114.45 tons, down 15.3 tons or - 0.1%. - Imported Ore Inventory of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly): It is 9076.0 tons, up 66.1 tons or 0.7%. - Inventory Availability Days of 64 Steel Mills (Weekly): It is 21.0 days, unchanged [5]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking enterprises has been fully implemented. Coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. For both coke and coking coal, a short - side oscillation is expected, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke Spot and Futures: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract is 1639 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.6%, and the 05 contract is 1796 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.0% [8]. - Basis and Spread: The 01 basis is 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 157 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. - Coking Profit: The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking Coal Spot and Futures: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1264 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 2.1%. The coking coal 01 contract is 1140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.7%, and the 05 contract is 1211 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.7% [8]. - Basis and Spread: The 01 basis is 125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [8]. - Sample Coal Mine Profit: The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 569 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 4.2% [8]. Supply - Coke Production (Weekly): The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.0 tons, down 0.6 tons or - 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% [8]. - Coking Coal Production (Weekly): The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.8 tons, up 5.4 tons or 0.6%, and the clean coal output is 435.7 tons, up 2.7 tons or 0.6% [8]. Demand - Hot - Metal Production (Weekly): The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - Coke Demand (Weekly): Reflected in the coke production requirements, with the change of coking plant and steel mill production [8]. Inventory Change - Coke Inventory (Weekly): The total coke inventory is 879.4 tons, down 7.7 tons or - 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [8]. - Coking Coal Inventory (Weekly): The clean coal inventory of some coal mines is 87.6 tons, up 7.2 tons or 9.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports has different changes, with an overall median increase [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - Coke Supply - Demand Gap (Weekly): It is - 5.5 tons, down 1.8 tons or - 32.5% [8].
《黑色》日报-20251120
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-20 01:36