Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings Group 2: Report Core Views - Copper: Market sentiment is cautious, with prices oscillating. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support a gradual upward shift of the price floor. Pay attention to demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc: Fundamental changes are limited, with prices oscillating. Supply is expected to face less pressure, and demand shows no significant upside. The LME inventory is increasing, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. Zinc exports may boost domestic prices. In the short term, prices will likely continue to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [3] - Aluminum: Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. The medium - term supply shortage remains [4] - Tin: The tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6] - Aluminum Alloy: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [9] - Nickel: Macro - factors are exerting some pressure, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The medium - term supply is abundant, restricting upward price movement. The price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000 yuan/ton [11] - Stainless Steel: Policy and macro - drivers are insufficient, and the fundamentals are not significantly improved. Supply and inventory pressures remain, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12300 - 12600 yuan/ton [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment is high, and the price is expected to remain strong in the short term, followed by wide - range fluctuations. Be cautious when chasing long positions, and consider partial profit - taking for existing long positions [15] - Polysilicon: Prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline, and attention should be paid to production control and demand changes [16] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main fluctuation range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86715 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1] - Fundamental Data: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62%. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% [1] Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22420 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [3] - Fundamental Data: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85%. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 696.78% [3] Aluminum - Alumina - Price and Spread: Aluminum oxide prices in different regions are mostly stable [4] - Fundamental Data: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% [4] - Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21550 yuan/ton, up 0.42% [4] - Fundamental Data: In October, electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52%. In September, imports were 24.68 million tons, up 13.57%, and exports were 2.90 million tons, up 13.07% [4] Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price is 291500 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6] - Fundamental Data: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, up 53.09% [6] Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21450 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] - Fundamental Data: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.50 million tons, down 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, up 1.06% [9] Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 117600 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [11] - Fundamental Data: China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84%. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% [11] Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38%. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [13] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 88900 yuan/ton, up 1.72% [15] - Fundamental Data: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73%. Demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% [15] Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The average price of N - type re - feedstock remains at 52300 yuan/kg [16] - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production was 2.68 million tons, down 0.74%. Monthly production was 13.40 million tons, up 3.08% [16] Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, unchanged [17] - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, up 7.46%. The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 9.98% [17]
《有色》日报-20251120
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-20 01:36