《农产品》日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the sentiment of small - scale farmers holding back sales has increased, and the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. With colder weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the demand expectation has improved, providing short - term price support. However, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term pig price. After the price recovers, the enthusiasm for slaughter increases, which is unfavorable for the near - month futures. There are sporadic outbreaks in the Northeast, and the spread of the epidemic needs continuous tracking. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can continue to be held [2]. Grains Industry - The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded market expectations, supporting US soybeans. But the export demand is weak, and China's 13% tariff on US soybeans is still unfavorable for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the high - level operation of crushers continues the loose pattern of soybean meal. The current futures price has limited downward space, but it is difficult to strengthen only based on cost and crushing profit. Continue to pay attention to the state - reserve soybean trends, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [5]. Corn Industry - The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, but the enthusiasm for selling grain is average, and the price is stable. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at enterprises is acceptable, and enterprises purchase as needed, with prices also stable. It is the stage of new - season corn supply, and about 20% of the grain has been sold. There is still selling pressure due to the bumper harvest. On the demand side, the deep - processing profit is relatively good, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is high. The feed industry has increased the inventory - replenishing enthusiasm of low - inventory enterprises, but the increase is limited, and purchases are still cautious. In the short term, corn trading is relatively stable, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. Pay attention to the grain - selling rhythm and traders' sentiment [7]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, due to the decline in production, improvement in exports, and the boost from the rise of peripheral vegetable oils, Malaysian palm oil may reach 4300 ringgit again. Affected by the continued strengthening of Malaysian palm oil, domestic palm oil futures may reach the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. For soybean oil, the US EPA has proposed to set the biodiesel quota for 2026 at 71.2 billion RIN, which is equivalent to about 56.1 billion gallons, higher than the industry's previous proposal. Policies on biodiesel in Canada and Indonesia have boosted the vegetable oil market. However, the NOPA data shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of October increased and exceeded market expectations. The CBOT soybean is stagnant, affecting the cost side of CBOT soybean oil. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the domestic fundamentals have been digested by the market. If the CBOT soybean oil rises after the shock, the January contract of domestic soybean oil futures may rise to around 8500 yuan [9]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower due to sufficient sugar supply. It is expected that the global sugar supply will remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's end - season production is strong, and the harvest in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere has started well, strengthening the expectation of sufficient supply during Brazil's off - season. The supply is loose, and the raw sugar price will be weak. The old - sugar market has basically cleared inventory, new sugar pressure is increasing in Guangxi, and China's sugar imports in October increased by 39% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The overall sugar price is expected to remain weak [12]. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower as traders awaited the US weekly export sales report. Domestically, the new cotton is concentrated on the market in the short term, and the production is high, bringing short - term supply pressure. However, the downstream textile enterprises' finished - product inventory pressure is not large, which supports the cotton price. In the short term, the cotton price may be under pressure and run weakly within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The number of newly - laying hens is at a low level, but the number of old hens for slaughter has not increased significantly. The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply pressure persists. With favorable storage conditions, there is inventory backlog at all levels, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The demand is weak, and trading at all levels is cautious. After the continuous decline of egg prices, the sentiment of holding back sales is strong in low - price areas, and the sales in high - price areas are slow. The current egg price has reached the bottom of the stage, and the space for further sharp decline may be limited. The short positions in the 2512 contract can gradually stop losses at the previous low [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 45.45%, the price of "Pig 2605" decreased by 0.37% to 11995 yuan/ton, the price of "Pig 2601" increased by 0.22% to 11560 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.86% to - 435, the main - contract position decreased by 2.87% to 138334, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei changed to 11800, 11800, 11350, 11550, 12210, 11800, and 11800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.84% to 202202, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.97% to 18.42 yuan/kg, the weekly piglet price increased by 1.47% to 17.25 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.14% to 128.48 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 28.70% to - 115 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.15% to - 206 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Grains Industry Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.33% to 3050 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.62% to 3022 yuan/ton, the basis of "M2601" increased by 47.37% to 28, the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "m2601 - 50", the crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments increased by 127.7% to 13, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4% to 40890 [5]. Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.64% to 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.49% to 2419 yuan/ton, the basis of "RM2601" decreased by 311.11% to - 19, the crushing profit of Canadian January shipments decreased by 8.16% to 630, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 27.14% to 2000 [5]. Soybeans - The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3920 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.10% to 4145 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 1.75% to - 225, the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3950 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.19% to 3748 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 3.59% to 202, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12832 [5]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 5.26% to 198, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 5.88% to 32, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.91% to 2.84, the main - contract oil - meal ratio increased by 1.06% to 2.77, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 4.84% to 650, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.15% to 603 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.32% to 2175 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.45% to 2220 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.42% to 45, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.11% to - 70, the bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2360 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit increased by 25.64% to 40, the CIF price increased by 0.04% to 2033 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 0.23% to 327, the number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased by 30.03% to 508, the position increased by 1.17% to 1903247, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69337 [7]. Corn Starch - The price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53% to 2480 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun increased by 1.99% to 2560 yuan/ton, the spot price in Weifang increased by 1.82% to 2800 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 86.05% to 80, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.05% to - 80, the 01 contract spread between starch and corn increased by 2.01% to 305, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged at 31, the position decreased by 0.57% to 282790, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12453 [7]. Oil Industry Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.58% to 8670 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.43% to 8356 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.67% to 314, the spot basis quote decreased by 10 to "01 + 260", and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% to 24627 [9]. Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.39% to 8740 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" increased by 1.65% to 8708 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.27% to - 88, the spot basis quote decreased by 30 to "01 - 50", the January import cost at Guangzhou Port increased by 1.31% to 9256.7 yuan/ton, the January import profit at Guangzhou Port increased by 5.64% to - 405, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 730 [9]. Rapeseed Oil - The current price of first - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.97% to 10270 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Ol601" decreased by 0.62% to 9813 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 9.85% to 357, and the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "01 + 350" [9]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 12.28% to 200, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 14.99% to - 114, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 9.85% to 363, the spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at - 70, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.67% to - 730, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.09% to 1500, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 6.24% to 1457 [9]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.48% to 5381 yuan/ton, the price of "Sugar 2605" decreased by 0.35% to 5338 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.34% to 14.66 cents/pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.00% to 43, the main - contract position increased by 6.83% to 388009, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.13% to 8428, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 183 [12]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5550 yuan/ton, the price in Kunming decreased by 0.90% to 5500 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 4.93% to 212, the Kunming basis decreased by 16.06% to 162, the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.73% to 4060 yuan/ton, the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.75% to 5143 yuan/ton, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning remained unchanged at - 1490, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning decreased by 2.26% to - 407 [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.90%, the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 44.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 33.65 million tons, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.63% to 13490 yuan/ton, the price of "Cotton 2601" increased by 0.67% to 13485 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.78% to 63.94 cents/pound, the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 5, the main - contract position decreased by 2.05% to 553421, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.52% to 3486, and the effective forecast increased by 23.92% to 1150 [13]. Spot Market - The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14557 yuan/ton, the CC Index of grade 3128B decreased by 0.07% to 14779 yuan/ton, the FC Index of grade M decreased by 0.47%