原木期货日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been weak recently, with a downward adjustment. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support in terms of import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. There is an expectation of a downward adjustment in foreign quotes. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Price Changes: On November 19, compared with November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 all declined, with decreases of 9.5 yuan (-1.21%), 2.5 yuan (-0.31%), and 3.5 yuan (-0.43%) respectively. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 7.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6.0. The basis of the 03 contract increased by 2.5, and the basis of the 01 contract increased by 9.5 [2]. - Spot Price Changes: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 19 compared with November 18. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - Import Cost Changes: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 19 was 7.111 yuan, a decrease of 0.002 yuan compared with November 18. The import theoretical cost was 810.73 yuan, a decrease of 0.26 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - Monthly Supply: In October, port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) compared with September. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) [2]. - Inventory: As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters (0.68%) compared with November 7. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters (2.04%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.2 million cubic meters (1.46%) [2][3]. 3.3 Demand - Weekly Average Daily Outbound Volume: As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters (-1%) compared with November 7. In Shandong, it was 3.67 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters (-3%), and in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.16 million cubic meters (7%) [3]. 3.4 Forecast of Arriving Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships (30%) compared with last week. The total arrival volume is about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters (48%) compared with last week [3]