甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251120

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iran's plant shutdown is slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. The external market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable. The import profit is around -200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants needs to be monitored [6]. - Polypropylene: The inventory of upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder plant operation rate is stable. The draw production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upper reaches is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The northwest discounted price increased by 10, and the daily change in the盘面MTO profit was 3 [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased, and the主力期货 price increased by 48 [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 60, and the主力期货 price increased by 42 [6]. PVC - Price Data: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the price of northwest calcium carbide decreased by 50, and the basis remained unchanged [6].