永安期货原油成品油早报-20251120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are accumulating, and global oil is slightly de - stocking. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, while the overhaul rate of Middle - East refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and potential OPEC production - increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern. In the fourth quarter, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 13 - 19, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $1.30, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.54. SC increased by 5.70, and OMAN decreased by 1.22. Other related prices such as those of refined products and differentials also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The Kremlin stated that it could arrange a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump if necessary. News of the decline in the signal of the Russia - Ukraine peace process led to a drop in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high, and production hit a two - and - a - half - year peak [3][4]. 3. Inventory - In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels, and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 702,000 barrels per day. UAE's Fujaidira Port's refined oil inventory increased by 3.204 million barrels in the week of November 12. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters in the week of November 08. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased [5].