大越期货尿素早报-20251120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. Overall, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is short - term weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Domestic market is oversupplied, and the spot price of delivery product is 1630 (+20), with neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 33, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), which is a bearish factor [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Expectation: Considering the moderately weak industrial demand, weak agricultural demand, improved export situation, and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - Spot Prices: The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1630 (+20), Henan spot price is 1630 (0), and FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - Futures Prices: The price of the 01 contract is 1663 (+1), UR05 is 1735 (-1), and UR09 is 1744 (-3). The basis of the 01 contract is - 33 (+19) [6]. - Inventory Data: The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), UR manufacturer inventory is 148.4 million tons, and UR port inventory is 8.2 million tons [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: The improvement of export situation [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic market oversupply and new capacity commissioning [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5].