大越期货PVC期货早报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the PVC industry [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong. The domestic demand recovery is sluggish, and the current demand may remain weak. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely Positive Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - Likely Negative Factors: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 343,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 134,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.08%. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase slightly next week [3][5] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [3][5] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 491 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2137.95 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6] - Basis: On November 19th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 38 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. It is neutral [7] - Inventory: The factory inventory was 322,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The ethylene factory inventory was 79,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The social inventory was 532,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [7] - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [7] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7] - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates of different types of PVC [14][15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend chart of the PVC futures basis, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17][18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 spreads and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products - Lancoke: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke [26][27] - Calcium Carbide: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [29][30] - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: The report shows the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31][32] - Caustic Soda: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of caustic soda [33][34][36] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, maintenance volume, and production trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [38][39][41] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate and profit - cost - production - consumption trends of different downstream products of PVC [43][46][47] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [56][57] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [59][60]