沪锌期货早报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2512) is that it will oscillate and weaken. The market shows mixed signals with both positive and negative factors influencing the price movement [2][21]. - The fundamentals indicate a supply shortage in the global zinc market from January to August 2025, which is a positive factor. However, the主力 net - short position and the increase in LME inventory are negative factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. Global zinc ore production in August 2025 was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, suggesting a positive outlook for the zinc market [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was +160, which is a positive signal for the market [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 19, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,550 tons to 45,075 tons, while SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts decreased by 1,473 tons to 75,314 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On November 19, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards, indicating a neutral market [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main players held a net - short position, and the short positions increased, which is a negative factor for the market [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes (November 19) - For the zinc futures contracts, different delivery months had various trading volumes, turnovers, and position changes. For example, the contract 2512 had a trading volume of 91,247 lots, a turnover of 10.2260961 billion yuan, and an open interest of 67,487 lots with a decrease of 14,839 lots [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes (November 19) - The price of zinc concentrate's domestic comprehensive TC was 2,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 90 dollars/dry ton (down 10 dollars/dry ton). The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang had different ranges and price increases [4]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 6 - 17) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets fluctuated slightly during this period. Compared with November 10, the total inventory increased by 40,000 tons, and compared with November 13, it increased by 130,000 tons [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report (November 19) - The total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 75,314 tons, a decrease of 1,473 tons compared to the previous day. Different warehouses in Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had various changes in warehouse receipts [7][8]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (November 19) - The total LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons compared to the previous day. Different locations had different inventory changes and注销仓单注销占比 [10]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (November 19) - Zinc concentrate prices in major domestic cities increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the prices in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi were in the range of 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (November 19) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Sanmenxia, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual refined zinc production in October 2025 was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 19) - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for different regions with a 50% grade were generally stable, while the imported processing fee for 48% grade decreased by 10 dollars/ton to 90 dollars/ton [19]. 3.15 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 19) - For the zn2512 contract, different futures companies had different trading volumes, long positions, and short positions, and most of them had changes compared to the previous trading day. The total trading volume was 148,344 lots (a decrease of 1,097 lots), the total long positions were 45,287 lots (a decrease of 9,864 lots), and the total short positions were 48,097 lots (a decrease of 9,443 lots) [20].