大越期货油脂早报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a range-bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with potential support from the tight supply of US soybeans and risks associated with El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% MoM to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% MoM to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% MoM to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% MoM increase, and palm oil supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: Spot price of soybean oil is 8,500, with a basis of 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 11.7% YoY [2] - Market: Futures prices are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main positions: Long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to trade in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but palm oil will enter the production - increase season, leading to an increase in supply [3] - Basis: Spot price of palm oil is 8,840, with a basis of - 12, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and down 34.1% YoY [3] - Market: Futures prices are below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main positions: Long positions of the main palm oil contract decreased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2601 is expected to trade in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to palm oil [4] - Basis: Spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,200, with a basis of 387, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and 3.2% YoY [4] - Market: Futures prices are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main positions: Long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to trade in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] -利空: Oils and fats prices are at relatively high historical levels, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Related - Items include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption [12] and soybean meal apparent consumption [14]