Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the electricity, utilities, and renewable energy sectors over the next 12 months, with an average stock return exceeding 100% in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - China's electricity demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, surpassing market expectations by 4-5 percentage points, driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [1][3]. - The global shortage of power equipment presents opportunities for Chinese companies to act as major international brand suppliers and to increase their market share [3][8]. - Investment in power supply equipment for AI data centers accounts for approximately 15% of total capital expenditure, creating new market opportunities for related companies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Growth - China's electricity demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, with additional growth driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [3][4]. - The construction scale of data centers in China is projected to be 5-6 GW from 2025 to 2027, significantly lower than the 40-45 GW expected in the U.S. during the same period, indicating substantial growth potential for China [4][5]. Power Equipment Exports - Chinese companies are positioned to benefit from global power equipment shortages, with opportunities to serve as suppliers for major global brands and to enhance their international market share [3][8]. - The penetration rates for transformers and switches in the global market are currently low at 7%-8%, and even lower for gas turbine blades at 1%-2%, suggesting significant room for growth [8][9]. AI Data Centers - The demand for high-power equipment in AI data centers is increasing, with capital expenditure in this area expected to create new market space for related enterprises [4][5]. - The anticipated growth in electricity demand from manufacturing, particularly due to exports, is expected to contribute an additional 1.5 percentage points annually to manufacturing electricity consumption [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicates that electricity demand growth will drive related capital expenditures to increase by 12%, higher than the 11% growth during the previous plan, reflecting stronger government support for the sector [5]. - Recent policy changes encouraging the use of domestic chips for data center construction and providing additional subsidies may accelerate the resolution of supply chain issues, further promoting industry growth [5].
瑞银展望-核电重估，出口提速，AI驱动：中国电力设备的新周期来了么