大越期货豆粕早报-20251120

Report Overview - Report Title: Bean Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Bean Meal (M2601): Expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybean (A2601): Forecasted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Bean Meal: Oscillates and declines, affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and spot price discounts. Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybean: Rises and then falls, influenced by US soybean trends, with the cost of imported soybeans supporting the price and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing it [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for bean meal in November. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Bean meal is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, pending further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybean - Bullish Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish Factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bean Meal: Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - Soybean: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week and a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Bean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - Soybean: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - Price and Volume: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [16]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets are provided, showing data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [32][33]. - Sowing and Harvesting Progress: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina are detailed [34][35][39]. - USDA Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months are included, showing data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - Industry Conditions: Information on the arrival volume of imported soybeans, soybean inventory of oil mills, soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig - raising industry is provided [47][48][55].