大越期货生猪期货早报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Large - scale farms have reduced their slaughter, supporting short - term pig prices. It is expected that both pig and pork supply will decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and mid - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis of the 2601 contract is 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, presenting a bearish situation [8]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [8]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, also indicating a bearish situation [8]. - Recently, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and return to a volatile pattern this week. The LH2601 contract of pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the arrival of the off - season, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand of pigs. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - After the festivals, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term, but the supply has also decreased, so the room for further decline in the spot price may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - After the National Day, the spot price of pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the futures will generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - Main logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory data: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8][25][26]. - Price data: From November 12 to 19, the prices of the main 2601 and far - month 2603 pig futures contracts fluctuated, and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained at 90. The spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [12]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided other than the fact that the main players' net position is short and the short positions are decreasing [8].