广发期货《有色》日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - Fundamentals: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - Fundamentals: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - Fundamentals: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - Fundamentals: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - Fundamentals: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - Fundamentals: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - Fundamentals: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - Fundamentals: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - Fundamentals: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].