沪铜产业日报-20251120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates weakly, with increased open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The profit environment of smelters is poor, and the smelting capacity may be limited. The total supply of refined copper in China is still at a high level but the growth rate slows down. The high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory decreases slightly. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the red column converges. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,754 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The monthly spread of the main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 187,778 lots, up 34,471 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 27,082 lots, down 4,173 lots; the LME copper inventory is 140,500 tons, up 4,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 109,407 tons, down 5,628 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,925 tons, down 550 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 58,352 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 86,435 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 86,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 305 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 33.13 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.21 dollars/kiloton, down 0.17 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,340 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,040 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,740 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment is 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.10 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.15%, down 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.60%, down 0.05%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 13.75%, up 0.0033%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, up 0.03 [2] Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting show that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials think it may be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials think another rate cut in December may be appropriate. There is almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet. Some people worry about the disorderly decline of the stock market. As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) is 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, and the rated total power of public charging piles reaches 203 million kilowatts, with an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts. Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized accelerating the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and promoting the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises [2]