瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1113.5, down 3.17%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The total inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1633.5, down 0.70%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. In the macro - aspect, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1113.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1633.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50. The JM futures contract position was 912017.00 hands, down 2263.00; the J futures contract position was 49628.00 hands, up 601.00. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 113822.00 hands, up 14420.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 1682.00 hands, up 469.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 150.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were - 12.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1780.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The JM main contract basis was 496.50 yuan/ton, up 26.00; the J main contract basis was 251.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20; the clean coal inventory was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged. The monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05; the coke inventory was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87; the coke inventory was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. The monthly coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03. The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2].