瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward trend of industrial silicon remains intact despite a recent decline, and it is expected to continue rising with a narrowing amplitude [2]. - On the supply side, as the southwest region enters the dry season, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly, and some industrial silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have planned to cut production, leading to a contraction in supply next week [2]. - On the demand side, the organic silicon industry's demand for industrial silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, and the increase in organic silicon prices may lead to an increase in industrial silicon demand; the demand for polysilicon is stabilizing, but the profitability of polysilicon enterprises is compressed, reducing their acceptance of industrial silicon prices; the demand for aluminum alloy has limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 315 yuan; the position of the main contract was 273,978 lots, a decrease of 32,691 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 86,614 lots, a decrease of 13,858 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting, aiming to cut the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month [2].