Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of butadiene rubber has slightly stronger support. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources have increased, but the spot resources remain tight. High - premium offers struggle to attract buyers, and private price - holding efforts also face difficulties in getting terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened [2]. - Tire enterprises' orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged overhauls and some have reduced production, dragging down the tire capacity utilization rate. As the production schedule of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization rate. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,450 - 10,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the position volume of the main contract is 72,012, an increase of 634 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,980 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 63.51 dollars/barrel, down 1.38 dollars; WTI crude oil is at 59.44 dollars/barrel, down 1.3 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; Naphtha CFR Japan is 573 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.56 million tons/week, up 0.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.02%, up 2.7 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 29,000 tons, down 800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, down 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.92%, up 4.07 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 636 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan; the social inventory is 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons; the trader's inventory is 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises' orders are insufficient, some sample enterprises have arranged overhauls, and some have reduced production, dragging down the sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Previously, most overhauled butadiene rubber devices have gradually restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the raw material buyers have actively followed up, the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly strengthened, private price - holding efforts struggle to get terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened, and this week the production enterprises' inventory has increased while the trading enterprises' inventory has changed slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, raw material buyers have actively followed up, and after the restart of previously overhauled devices [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20251120
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-20 09:18