瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 180,463 lots, down 3,365 lots; the position of the main contract is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,916 lots, up 150 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 7,680 yuan/ton, up 2,720 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,145 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 11,075 yuan/ton, up 675 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,928 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 35,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 175,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 38,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 49.18%, down 0.49%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 38.12%, up 0.10% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 185,403 lots, down 9,600 lots; the total put position is 221,709 lots, up 37,706 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 119.58%, up 25.2231%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.48%, up 0.0423% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Do - fluoride said on the interactive platform that the company's current production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 65,000 tons/year, and the new production capacity will be determined according to market demand; Sichuan Famon's 60,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate plant has been fully completed and put into use; in October, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. Among them, 14,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% of the total imports; 7,274 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 30% of the total imports. In October, China exported 246 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 63% and a year - on - year decrease of 18%; customs data shows that the import of spodumene decreased in October, reaching 652,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe together contributed 85.7% of the total imports. Among them, 295,000 tons of ore came from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; about 110,000 tons of ore came from Nigeria, a month - on - month decrease of 8%, and the proportion of lithium concentrate increased significantly; 153,000 tons of ore came from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month increase of 40.9%. In addition, the import from South Africa decreased significantly, with 50,000 tons imported in October, a month - on - month decrease of 54.1% [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose and then pulled back, with a 0.84% increase at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day. Fundamentally, the continuous strengthening of the lithium carbonate spot has driven up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in taking delivery. The ore trading market is relatively active. In terms of supply, domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate, and the production capacity is fully released. Coupled with the significant increase in exports from Chile, it is expected that the domestic imports will also increase after arrival, so the domestic supply level will increase significantly. In terms of demand, both the power and energy storage sectors are making efforts. Driven by good demand expectations, downstream orders and production schedules have increased. Some downstream battery materials have risen rapidly due to supply shortages. In the option market, the put - call ratio of the position is 119.58%, a month - on - month increase of 25.2231%. The option market is dominated by put positions, and the sentiment in the option market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility rising slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]