瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The economy in October continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone and may focus on structural tools. The scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market is unlikely to form a one - way trend, and interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures Price and Volume: T, TF, and TS main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0%, respectively, while the TL main contract closing price decreased by 0.21%. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 14,928, 17,153, and 9,953, respectively, while the TL main contract trading volume decreased by 6,605. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 19,712, 13,597, 8,909, and 9,075, respectively [2] - Futures Spreads: Most futures spreads decreased, including TL2512 - 2603, T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603, and TS2512 - 2603 spreads [2] Bond Market - CTD Bond Net Price: Some CTD bond net prices increased, such as 220017.IB, 250018.IB, etc., while some decreased, such as 210005.IB, 210014.IB [2] - Active Bond Yields: Yields of 1y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds changed by - 0.30bp, + 0.25bp, + 0.13bp, and + 0.20bp, respectively [2] Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 2.66bp, 1.00bp, and 3.33bp, respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 5.60bp, 2.70bp, and 2.20bp, respectively [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 300 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 190 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] Industry News - The LPR rates on November 20 remained unchanged. From January to October, national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders on November 24, with operation volumes of 120 billion yuan (1 - month) and 80 billion yuan (21 - day) respectively [2]