Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Near-term raw material prices in Yunnan's rubber production areas have changed little. Although it has stopped raining in some areas, it remains cloudy, and raw material collection is still not ideal. In Hainan's production areas, the weather is okay, but the temperature has started to drop, the dry content of latex has declined, and local processing plants have gradually entered the winter stockpiling stage, maintaining a state of increasing prices to purchase raw materials. [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouses are showing inventory reduction, while general trade continues to accumulate inventory. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing still remain at a high level. Factories have sufficient replenishment in the early stage. The outbound goods from general trade warehouses are mostly for the delivery of previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and new orders are few, so the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. [2] - In terms of demand, tire enterprise orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged maintenance during the cycle, and some have reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. As the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually resumes, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control continues, which will limit the increase range of capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,200 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 123,127 lots, a decrease of 3,000 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 62,272 lots, an increase of 808 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,848 lots, a decrease of 1,192 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,220 lots, a decrease of 3,852 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 39,600 tons, a decrease of 76,460 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 49,795 tons, an increase of 201 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,111 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 791 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 149.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The full - steel tire operating rate is 64.5%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.46%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.43%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 20.32%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251120
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-20 10:01