建信期货股指日评-20251120

Report Type - Stock Index Daily Review [1] Date - November 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 19, the Wind All - A Index declined on lower volume, trending down after opening, recovering in the afternoon and then weakening again, closing down 0.30%. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed up 0.44% and 0.58% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed down 0.40% and 0.82% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the futures market, the IF and IH main contracts closed up 0.22% and 0.45% respectively, generally weaker than the spot, and the IC and IM main contracts closed down 0.35% and 0.73% respectively, generally stronger than the spot (based on closing prices) [6] 1.2 Outlook - External markets: Sino - Japanese relations continue to deteriorate, slightly increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. Domestic situation: October economic data shows both supply and demand weakened. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. The decline rates of both narrowed and reached their lowest levels since September 2024. The investment side continued to shrink, with the cumulative fixed - asset investment from January to October decreasing by 1.7% year - on - year, and the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure further narrowed, and the decline in real estate investment further expanded. Overall, the marginal pressure on domestic economic data has further increased, awaiting policy support. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance remains at a high level, supporting the index. The total turnover of the All - A Index shrank to 1.74 trillion yuan. In the short term, policy expectations have weakened recently, and technically, it is near the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. However, the basis repair shows that market sentiment is not overly pessimistic. It is expected that the index may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the market style should adopt a barbell strategy, with balanced allocation between the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [8] 3. Industry News - Regarding China's notification to Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 19th that Japan previously promised to fulfill its regulatory responsibilities for aquatic products exported to China and ensure product quality and safety, which is a prerequisite for Japanese aquatic products to enter the Chinese market. However, Japan has failed to provide the promised technical materials. Recently, due to the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae on major issues such as Taiwan, which have aroused strong public indignation in China, "even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no market" [32]