建信期货国债日报-20251120

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Financial Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - purchasing and the slowdown of economic momentum, there is support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. Investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices. In the short term, weak economic data and the passing of the tax - payment peak may boost the market's expectation of monetary easing and reduce disturbances to the bond market [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Condition: Affected by the tightening of inter - bank funds and stock market fluctuations, the sentiment in the bond market was weak, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds changed narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.3bp to 1.8080%. The money market was tight in the morning and gradually loosened in the afternoon. The central bank achieved a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 10.64bp to 1.4221%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.08bp to 1.5131%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [8][9][10] - Conclusion: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. Exports turned negative in October, and price indicators remained low. Currently, loose monetary and fiscal policies are being strengthened. The restart of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit effects on the bond market should be limited. The bond market's negative factors have basically been released, and it is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are still some uncertain disturbances, overall, the bond market environment has improved, and investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Diplomatic events: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was dissatisfied with the results of the Sino - Japanese consultation, and the Chinese side demanded that Japan correct its wrong remarks. The US modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, which was a discriminatory restriction on Chinese enterprises, and the Chinese side would closely monitor the situation [13] - Domestic policies: The Chinese Premier called for free trade and strengthened cooperation within the SCO. Local financial departments are actively deploying the reserve work for special bond projects in 2026, and multiple "two - major" construction projects have started, which is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate of infrastructure investment [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Presented the trading data of treasury bond futures on November 19, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [6] - Money Market: Included the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trend, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [28][32] - Derivatives Market: Showed the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]