建信期货豆粕日报-20251120

Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 1.1 Market Review - Domestic Soybean Meal Futures: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts (2601, 2603, 2605) declined. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3022, down 35 points or 1.14% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 969,051, and the open interest decreased by 48,610 to 1,597,855 [6]. - US Soybean Futures: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production and crushing of the previous year. The ending stocks for the 24/25 season decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 season, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was further reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels [6]. 1.2 Operation Suggestions - Monitor the data of China's imports of US soybeans. If the data improves, soybean meal may regain an upward trend; if it remains sluggish, it may return to the previous range - bound state [6]. 2. Industry News - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - USDA Private Exporter Report: On November 18, private exporters reported the sale of 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - Abiove Forecast: The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) forecast that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than the previous year's 172.1 million tons. The soybean crushing volume is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than the previous year's 58.5 million tons. The export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than the 2025 level of 109 million tons [10]. 3. Data Overview The report includes figures such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][15]