螺纹热卷日报-20251120

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3,180 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3,220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3,270 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3,210 yuan (-10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core Viewpoints - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with mainly rigid demand at low prices. This week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and with the repair of EAF profits, rebar production resumed at an accelerated pace. The destocking speed of the total steel inventory accelerated this week, and the apparent demand for steel significantly recovered, with rebar performing better than hot-rolled coil. Recently, some blast furnaces have resumed production, but there is still room for a reduction in molten iron in the future. Affected by coal supply guarantee and the target of 100 million tons of Mongolian coal shipments, coking coal and coke prices have accelerated their decline recently, while steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the futures market has pre - reacted to the third round of coke price cuts. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year - on - year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, there is a structural shortage of PB iron ore powder, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited, so there is support for steel costs. Therefore, steel prices will still fluctuate within a range in the short term, and more factors are needed to break the situation. But hot-rolled coil still performs better than rebar overall, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price will maintain a weak oscillating trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 15530 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 12270 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 31980 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 44250 tons. [9] - The November Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was announced: the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR is 3%, the same as last month. [9] Group 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include various price and spread charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, such as price charts, basis charts, spread charts, and profit charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [10][13][15]