建信期货棉花日报-20251120

Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market showed a fluctuating upward trend. With the Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase almost finished, the market's expectation of the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton output increased. The downstream market remained weak, but the overall finished - product inventory increased slightly. Considering the limited short - term fundamental changes, it is advisable to try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard). The cotton yarn market's trading weakened, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and a decline in operating rates. The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight decline, while high - count combed yarn prices were relatively firm. The sales of cotton grey cloth were still differentiated, and the price was stable with a weakening trend [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Given the limited short - term fundamental changes, try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week of November 16, the U.S. cotton picking rate was 71%, compared with 76% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of November 18, 2025, 1,039 cotton processing enterprises across the country had processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton, with a cumulative inspection of 3.2727 million tons, an increase of 101,900 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 3.244 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar against the Indian rupee [16][18][19][21][28][30].