建信期货锌期货日报-20251120

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc contracts 2512, 2601, and 2602, the closing prices were 22,420 yuan/ton, 22,435 yuan/ton, and 22,455 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 70 yuan (0.31%), 65 yuan (0.29%), and 60 yuan (0.27%). The positions of the top 20 long and short seats both decreased, and the net long position decreased by 421 lots. LME zinc had an additional delivery of 1,550 tons to 45,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 9,700 lots since November. The Cash - 3M spread was 129.76B. [7] - Spot Market: The downstream maintained just - in - time procurement. The premium in Shanghai market for the December contract was 160 yuan/ton, Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai, and Guangdong market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton for the January 26 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. [7] - Supply and Price Support: Due to the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the processing fee continued to decline. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decrease slightly month - on - month, and the tightening of the ore end supported the zinc price. [7] - Market Sentiment: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 42.9%. The market sentiment turned cautious before the release of the September non - farm payroll data on Thursday evening. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Price Ranges on November 19, 2025: The mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,495 - 22,600 yuan/ton, Shuangyan brand was 22,545 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,425 - 22,530 yuan/ton. [8] - Regional Markets: In Ningbo, the mainstream 0 zinc price was 22,525 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and 120 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In Tianjin, 0 zinc was 22,330 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and the premium for the 2512 contract was between a discount of 20 yuan/ton and a premium of 50 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, 0 zinc was 22,290 - 22,420 yuan/ton, with a discount of 55 - 25 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract and 60 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory. [10][12] - Data Sources: The data sources are Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]