芳烃橡胶早报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some TA devices under maintenance in the near - term,开工 declines, polyester load drops, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains weak. However, considering high maintenance, no obvious pressure on downstream, India's revocation of BIS certification, limited far - month production, and a good PX pattern, opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue. But due to low coal - based efficiency after the strengthening of coal prices, there may be a partial reduction in supply. In the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the efficiency and operation of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly, staple fiber exports maintain high growth, and short - term new capacity launches are relatively limited. Opportunities for expanding processing fees and warehouse receipt situations should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and the price of Thai cup rubber stable while rainfall affects tapping, the strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From November 14 - 20, 2025, crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA spot decreased by 10, polyester profit increased by 20, and inventory (warehouse receipts + valid forecasts) increased by 4,608. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-70) [3]. - Device Changes: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device was under maintenance [3]. - Outlook: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state. With no obvious pressure on downstream products and India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees [3]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 4, the MEG inner - market price decreased by 34, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by 34 [3]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - Outlook: Short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue. But considering the low efficiency of coal - based production, the supply may be reduced. In the long - term, the pattern will weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, and the profit of staple fiber increased by 20 [3]. - Device Operation: The near - term device operation was stable, with an operation rate of 97.5%. The polyester yarn end's operation rate was stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory decreased [3]. - Outlook: High - growth exports prevent obvious inventory accumulation. With limited short - term new capacity launches, opportunities for expanding processing fees and warehouse receipt situations should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 20, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 190, and the price of RU main contract decreased by 190 [6]. - Key Indicators: The national explicit inventory was stable, the price of Thai cup rubber was stable, and rainfall affected tapping [6]. - Strategy: Wait and see [6]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 14 - 20, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 [9]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased, and the domestic profits of EPS, PS, and ABS remained unchanged from November 14 - 20, 2025 [9].