建信期货工业硅日报-20251121

1. Report Date - The report is dated November 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team and Researchers - The research is conducted by the Energy and Chemical Research Team. Researchers include Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices basically gave back yesterday's gains. The closing price of Si2601 was 9,075 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.37%. The trading volume was 574,345 lots, the open interest was 273,978 lots, with a net decrease of 32,691 lots [4] - Spot prices were slightly raised. The price range of 553 was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was 9,700 - 10,050 yuan/ton [4] 4. Market Outlook - Although the spot price of industrial silicon has increased recently, the stable price center provides no upside space for the futures market. Yesterday, the production cut of silicone was less than expected, leading to a joint upward movement with other market products due to capital sentiment. However, after the market closed, the significant increase in net short positions among the top 20 institutions reflected capital's pessimism about an upward breakthrough. Today's prices basically gave back yesterday's gains, and the collective weakness of other market products also showed a similar capital sentiment [4] - Fundamentally, production cuts on the supply side are ongoing, and weekly output still has room to decline. However, demand is lackluster, especially when polysilicon and silicone are both in the production - cut stage, so the supply - demand contradiction will not intensify. The relatively strong spot price provides support at the bottom. The price of the main contract has not effectively broken through, and the market should be treated as a range - bound one [4] 5. Market News - On November 20, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE was 43,297 lots, a net decrease of 115 lots from the previous trading day [4] - A meeting of actual controllers of silicone monomer plants was held in Shanghai as scheduled. The organizer was the China Fluorine and Silicone Organic Materials Industry Association, and all leading enterprises participated. The total production capacity of participating enterprises accounted for over 80% of the industry's capacity. The meeting was about joint production cuts and price support. According to SMM, regarding production cuts, the plan is to start on December 1st, with an unclear implementation period. Assuming full implementation in December, the DMC output in December is expected to be about 210,400 tons, a reduction of about 8,000 tons compared to before the cut. The expected impact on the monthly consumption of industrial silicon is about 4,400 tons [4]