建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251121

Report Information - Report title: Polyolefins Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The short - term polyolefin market has no clear cost guidance, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack support, so it will be adjusted weakly [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6835 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.32%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 11,929 lots in positions to 516,737 lots. PP2601 closed at 6400 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan, a decline of 0.34%, with a decrease of 2378 lots in positions to 618,000 lots. The futures' rise had limited impact on the market atmosphere. Traders adjusted prices slightly, and downstream buyers purchased raw materials as needed with weak speculative intention [6] - Supply: The loss of production due to maintenance decreased, and the weekly output increased as expected [6] - Demand: In November, demand is expected to weaken. After replenishing at low prices, downstream buyers returned to purchasing based on rigid demand [6] - Cost: OPEC+ suspended production increase in the first quarter of next year, but the oversupply situation is hard to reverse. Oil prices face continuous oversupply pressure, and the cost support for plastics is hard to find [6] 2. Industry News - Inventory: On November 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.43%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 635,000 tons [7] - PE price: The PE market price was weakly sorted. The LLDPE price in North China was 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, in East China was 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5900 - 5980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, the enthusiasm for plant operation decreased, and the downstream's willingness to pursue high prices weakened slightly [7] - PP price: The PP market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6200 - 6380 yuan/ton, in East China was 6280 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6400 - 6540 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change, with data from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][15]