建信期货国债日报-20251121

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - buying, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The November LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations and had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The buying of 5 - year and 7 - year Treasury bond cash bonds was relatively obvious, possibly related to the central bank's bond - buying. [8] - Interest Rate Cash Bonds: The yields of major - term interest - rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market all changed within a narrow range. By 16:30 PM, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8090%, up 0.2bp. [9] - Funding Market: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank funding market became looser, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. There were 310 billion yuan of open - market maturities, and the central bank injected 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating further relief of funding pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits dropped 5.69bp to 1.3652%, and the 7 - day rate dropped 2.74bp to 1.4857%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64%. [10] - Conclusion: In terms of the economic fundamentals, since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. The export, which was the main support of the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of export decline and weak domestic demand led to price indicators remaining low. The fundamentals still face certain pressure. In terms of policies, the current combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened again. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The credit - expansion effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase the space for easing. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances. [11][12] 2. Industry News - The November LPR quote remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.5%. [13] - The Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association organized an integrity initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline and maintain the real - estate market order. [13] - Recently, multiple "two - important" construction projects have started. "Two - important" construction will be an important focus of the stable - growth policy, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the cost index of lithium iron phosphate and standardizing industry development to prevent low - price dumping. [14] - Japan plans to launch a new expenditure plan of 17.7 trillion yen and needs to issue more bonds to raise funds. [15] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Data on the trading of various Treasury bond futures contracts on November 20, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, were presented. [6] - Money Market: Information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repo rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged - repo rate, was provided. [29][31] - Derivatives Market: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided. [34]