《能源化工》日报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - Fundamentals: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - Supply: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - Inventory: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - Supply and Demand: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - PX - related: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - PTA - related: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - MEG - related: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - 开工率: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - Inventory and开工率: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].