白糖早报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The external sugar price is weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, 01, has recently set a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is advised to partially take profits on short - term short positions [4][5][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 364, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - Likely Positive Factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: An increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the external sugar price to around 14 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO forecasts a supply surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX forecasts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons [4][9]. - China's Sugar Production and Sales: In the 24/25 season, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1170 million tons, the import is 500 million tons, the consumption is 1570 million tons, and the surplus change is 82 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [37]. - Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar: At the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the import cost outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in the international sugar price, the import profit was considerable [43]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.