大越期货油脂早报-20251121

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and puts pressure on prices. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a B50 plan expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Directory Daily Views - Soybean Oil: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The futures price is above the 20-day moving average which is upward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: No specific data analysis provided, only an indication of the topic [6]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [9][10]. - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: No specific data analysis other than historical trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [11][12]. - Palm Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Rapeseed Inventory: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [21][22]. - Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory: Historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2019 are shown in the graph [23][24]. Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [13][14]. - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [15][16].