大越期货纯碱早报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory, the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals suggest an overall ample supply as alkali plants are at high production levels and Yuanxing's Phase II is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. Downstream float glass supply has disturbance expectations, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -33 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - Likely Positives: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - Likely Negatives: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1182 | 1140 | - 42 | | Current Value | 1158 | 1125 | - 33 | | Change Rate | - 2.03% | - 1.32% | - 21.43% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamental Analysis - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 232 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.92 million tons, including 41.09 million tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant increase in new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025, with 100 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamental Analysis The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].