大越期货沪铜早报-20251121
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-21 01:31

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 86410, the basis is 280, and the premium is on the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On November 20, copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week, showing a neutral situation [2]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running downward, showing a bearish situation [2]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increases, showing a bullish situation [2]. Expectation - With inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Information - The processing fee has declined, and the bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13][16].