沪锌期货早报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall zinc market shows a complex situation with a mix of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors. The short - term view suggests that the zinc market may experience a period of oscillatory consolidation, and the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 is expected to oscillate and decline [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2] - The basis with a spot price of 22,570 and a basis of +190 is also a bullish factor [2] 2. Market Data on November 20 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - For the zinc futures on November 20, different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, the ZN2512 contract had a previous settlement of 22,410, an opening price of 22,455, a high of 22,495, a low of 22,380, and a closing price of 22,380, with a decline of 30 [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - The domestic spot market for zinc showed different prices in different regions. For 0 zinc, the price in Shanghai was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,270 - 22,370 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,400 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,440 - 22,540 yuan/ton [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 - 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets decreased from 162,000 tons on November 10 to 159,800 tons on November 20. Compared with November 13, it decreased by 13,000 tons, and compared with November 17, it decreased by 25,000 tons [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On November 20, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts decreased by 1,646 tons to 73,668 tons [2][7] Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 20, the prices of zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were between 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, and there was no price change [10] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, and Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium all increased by 10 yuan/ton on November 20 [13] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On November 20, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade in different regions were between 2,400 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 90 US dollars/thousand tons, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/thousand tons [17] Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the ZN2512 contract on November 20, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18] 3. Short - term Market Outlook - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with short positions reducing more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator is declining while the long - position strength is rising and the short - position strength is declining. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and the ZN2512 contract is expected to oscillate and decline [20]