大越期货沪铝早报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and continued weakness in the real estate market, along with short - term macro - mood volatility. The basis shows a neutral state with a slight premium. The inventory situation is neutral, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - moving 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main force is decreasing but still long, indicating a bullish bias. In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, and with improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real estate market is weak, and short - term macro - sentiment is changeable; neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 21570, the basis is 40, with a premium over the futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 1564 tons to 114899 tons compared with last week; neutral [2]. - Price Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - Main Force Position: The main force has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long term. With improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will be strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. -利空Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand balance of aluminum in China shows fluctuations. There were shortages in 2018 (-47.61 million tons), 2019 (-68.61 million tons), 2021 (-14.2 million tons), 2022 (-29.98 million tons), and 2023 (-4.31 million tons), while there was a surplus in 2020 (1.3 million tons) and 2024 (15 million tons) [22].