大越期货玻璃早报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level during the same period, downstream deep - processing orders being overall weak and worse than the same period in previous years, and real - estate terminal demand being weak with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - Under the influence of the "Anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, resulting in production losses. The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, downstream periodic restocking has ended, and glass factory inventories have increased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1009 yuan/ton to 989 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%. The spot price of the Shahe Safety large board remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 9 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton, a change of - 222.22% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamentals - Cost - end - The recovery of glass production profit is sluggish, but no specific profit data is provided [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level during the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level during the same period [23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [26]. - Real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level during the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [2][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.303 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamentals - Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [40].