大越期货尿素早报-20251121

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated November 21, 2025, prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, with the short - term agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand being neutral to weak. However, the improvement in exports has boosted the market sentiment, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Group 4: Detailed Summaries Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is neutral to weak. With the commissioning of new production capacity in mid - month, supply pressure increases again. Export margin has improved, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the deliverable is 1630 (+0), and the fundamentals are overall neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 33, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.0%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main positions: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The industrial demand is neutral to weak, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the improvement in exports has boosted the market sentiment. The overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting Urea - Positive factors: Export improvement [5] - Negative factors: Domestic supply exceeding demand and new production capacity launch [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Market Data - Spot market: The spot price of the deliverable is 1630, the Shandong spot price is 1640 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1630 (+0), and the FOB China price is 2845 [6] - Futures market: The price of the 01 contract is 1665 (+2), the basis is - 35 (-2), the price of the UR05 contract is 1735 (+0), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1739 (-5) [6] - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.484 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 82,000 tons [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with the growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption also show an upward trend, with the consumption growth rate ranging from 0.3% to 17.9% [9]