建信期货集运指数日报-20251121

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment rush further fermented in the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to the falling - short of price increase expectations. The SCFIS index declined 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67, and shipping companies haven't formed a unified price - support force. There is a long - term price increase expectation, which may overvalue the April contract. It is advisable to focus on the positive spread trading opportunity between the February and April contracts [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: After the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified the last trading day of the February contract on Friday, the expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment rush affected the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to unmet price increase expectations. The SCFIS index dropped 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67, and shipping companies' online quotes changed little. The price increase of CMA CGM is expected to be difficult to implement, and the price increase in December fell short of expectations. However, there is a long - term price increase expectation, which may overvalue the April contract, so pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between the February and April contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From November 10 to 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with the freight rates of ocean routes showing a differentiated trend, and the comprehensive index slightly declined. In October, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, indicating a stable and progressive economic development [9]. - European Routes: On November 14, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in November was 25, up from the previous value, showing a recovery in market confidence in the European economic outlook. The freight rate of the Shanghai - Europe basic port market increased by 7.1% to 1417 US dollars/TEU [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The supply - demand relationship remained balanced, and the market freight rate was stable at 2029 US dollars/TEU on November 14 [9]. - North American Routes: The US Congress passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. It is estimated that the shutdown will reduce the US GDP in the fourth quarter by 1.5 percentage points. The freight rate of the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port markets decreased by 17.6% and 8.7% respectively to 1823 US dollars/FEU and 2600 US dollars/FEU on November 14 [10]. - International Situation: There are complex political and military situations in the Gaza Strip and Israel - Turkey relations, which may have an impact on the shipping market [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The SCFIS for European routes decreased from 1504.8 to 1357.67, a week - on - week decline of 9.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1329.71 to 1238.42, a week - on - week decline of 6.9% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Futures Data: The trading data of multiple contracts such as EC2512, EC2602 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts: Include the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [13][18]