建信期货铜期货日报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to spot demand and macro - factors but have limited downside in the medium term because of demand support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Copper prices rose and then fell. Overnight, the strong Q3 report of NVIDIA lifted the US stock market, improving market sentiment. However, the Fed's October meeting minutes showed most policymakers opposed a December rate cut, causing the US dollar to strengthen and copper prices to face pressure [10]. - The spot price dropped by 320 to 86,435, and the spot premium fell by 5. The social inventory increased by 0.07 million tons this week. Despite the significant decline in copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment was average [10]. - The spot import loss widened to around 500, the ratio decreased, and the LME0 - 3 contango narrowed slightly to 33. The domestic warehouse receipt and bill of lading premiums remained flat, and the demand for Yangshan copper was also weak [10]. - The spot market has not effectively reduced inventory, indicating continued high - price aversion among domestic downstream users. However, medium - term demand is still optimistic. Codelco raised its 2026 Korean long - term contract price to $330/ton, an increase of $85 from 2025 [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Driven by AI, the demand for high - end PCBs has surged, bringing structural opportunities for copper - clad laminates (CCLs), a key substrate for PCBs. Some high - end CCL products are in short supply, and prices have risen. Manufacturers such as Kingboard Laminates have raised prices multiple times this year. The capacity utilization rates of Nanya New Materials and Huazheng New Materials are high, and they adjusted prices in October. Some industry manufacturers are still adjusting CCL prices in batches. The CCL product prices have not fully recovered to the 2021 level [11]. - As of H1 2025, there were 141 A - share non - ferrous metal companies, achieving an operating income of 1.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 95.363 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 36%. More than 90% of the companies were profitable in H1. As of late October 2025, the total market value of the non - ferrous metal sector was about 4.92 trillion yuan. The president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association encouraged non - ferrous metal listed companies to invest in key metals and industries [11][12].