Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the documents Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The downstream price - fixing volume rebounded significantly. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream price - fixing [1]. Aluminum - Overseas production halt news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, making it stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased. It may show a volatile trend in the short term [2]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC decreased further. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly, but the smelter's profit is still acceptable. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. Nickel - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. The steel mill's production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable, and the inventory remains at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply of recycled lead increased, and the social inventory accumulated. The demand for batteries may weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - The center of tin prices rose this week. The supply has been marginally restored, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly rigid. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position in the non - ferrous metals portfolio [11]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term and oscillate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term. The supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is running strongly. The raw material supply is tight, the upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient. The trading is light, and the basis has weakened slightly. In the long - term, the pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [17].
永安期货有色早报-20251121
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-21 01:36