原油成品油早报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential Russia - Ukraine negotiations on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and short - term statements from the US and Russia will affect market expectations. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased, while global oil slightly decreased. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, recent refinery operations in Europe and the US have recovered, and the maintenance rate of Middle - Eastern refineries remains high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai spread, but global supply pressure and OPEC's potential production increase plan limit the upside. In the short term, spreads and absolute prices will remain volatile, and the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended for the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - Crude Oil and Related Products: From November 14 - 20, WTI decreased by $0.44 to $59.00, BRENT decreased by $0.13 to $63.38, and DUBAI increased by $0.01 to $64.67. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.07 to $0.58, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by $0.31 to -$4.38. Other related products also showed various changes [3]. - Domestic Products: From November 14 - 20, domestic gasoline decreased by 30 yuan to 7060 yuan, and domestic diesel decreased by 10 yuan to 6423 yuan. The domestic gasoline - BRT spread decreased by 24 yuan, and the domestic diesel - BRT spread decreased by 5 yuan [3]. - Other Products: From November 14 - 20, Japan's CFR naphtha decreased, Singapore's 380CST fuel oil increased, and HH natural gas increased. The spreads of these products also changed accordingly [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US Government Policy: The Trump administration is restructuring the Department of Energy, canceling the office focused on clean and renewable energy and creating a department for hydrocarbons and fusion energy [3]. - Corporate Actions: India's Reliance Industries will stop processing Russian oil at part of its Jamnagar refinery due to US sanctions [3]. - Geopolitical Tensions: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard has elevated its combat readiness, and the Ukrainian military attacked Russia's Ryazan refinery [4]. 3.3 Inventory - US Inventory: In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase [5]. - Other Regions' Inventory: As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE increased by 3.204 million barrels to 21.181 million barrels. As of the week of November 08, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 thousand liters to 10,379,001 thousand liters. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.4149 million tons (down 1.52%) and diesel at 12.8156 million tons (down 0.63%) [5].