大越期货菜粕早报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, the low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern, also influenced by the uncertain situation of Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2400 and 2460. The market is affected by soybean meal and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is range - bound due to factors like low inventory and Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and basis: The spot price is 2510, and the basis is 98, indicating a premium over the futures. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year. - Aquatic product prices: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [9][15][35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].