集运早报-20251121

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market was oscillating on Thursday, waiting for new drivers [3] - The EC2512 contract is neutrally valued and will gradually move towards the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest [3] - The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly follow the spot trend in the short - term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to oscillate in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1775.7, with a 0.70% increase, a basis of - 418.0, a trading volume of 4067, an open interest of 8060, and an open interest change of - 1508 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1631.0, with a 0.55% decrease, a basis of - 273.3, a trading volume of 32775, an open interest of 42029, and an open interest change of 1785 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1163.0, with a 0.03% increase, a basis of 194.7, a trading volume of 3097, an open interest of 16014, and an open interest change of 70 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1381.1, with a 0.07% decrease, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 218, an open interest of 1575, and an open interest change of - 7 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1505.0, with a 1.00% increase, a basis of - 147.3, a trading volume of 92, an open interest of 1224, and an open interest change of 12 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1109.0, with a 0.09% decrease, a basis of 248.7, a trading volume of 382, an open interest of 2493, and an open interest change of - 27 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 612.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 12.1 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 35.3 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - spread was 144.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 21.5 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 31.9 [2] - EC2602 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 468.0, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.4 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 3.4 [2] Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/17, the current value is 1357.67 points, with a - 9.78% change from the previous period and a 24.50% change from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1417 dollars/TEU, with a 7.11% increase from the previous period and a - 1.56% change from two periods ago [2] - CCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1403.64 points, with a 2.69% increase from the previous period and a 3.25% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 979.34 points, with a 7.42% increase from the previous period and a - 5.58% change from two periods ago [2] Recent Spot Situation of European Line - Week 48: Currently, MSK's opening rate is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous rate, OA has not adjusted the price yet, with an average of 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures price) [3] - 12 - month price increase notices have been issued by MSK and MSC, and other shipping companies may issue them successively this week [3] - Week 49: The offline quotes are between 2200 - 2500 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced it to 2506 dollars [3] - Week 50: On Thursday, Maersk added an extra ship to the second week of December with a capacity of 13000 TEU [3] News - On 11/21, the Israeli Defense Minister said that the tunnel network of Hamas in Gaza must be destroyed, and the Israeli army is working continuously to complete this task [3] - On 11/21, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that the conflict could break out at any time and has raised the combat readiness level [3] - On 11/21, the US Treasury Department strengthened sanctions on the oil network supporting the Iranian army [3]